Change 2026 – Growth in action: A confident but measured outlook for 2026

Lizzy Buss, Managing Director, Business Development

Download the Change 2026 report now.

Against a backdrop of uncertainty – from rising tariffs and uneven macroeconomics to geopolitical instability – the asset management industry is gearing up for a year of meaningful growth.

For our third annual Change report, Carne surveyed fund managers and institutional investors about their plans and predictions for the year ahead. And what they told us makes for compelling reading: 93% of managers expect higher inflows in 2026 – the strongest level recorded since these reports began in 2024. Institutional investors are on the same page: 84% expect to take on more risk this year – continuing a three-year trend of growing risk appetite

Although volatility is here to stay, Change 2026 reveals an industry confident in its abilities, committed to meeting its challenges head-on, and more deliberate in how it adapts. Managers are expanding into new products, asset classes and geographies, but they’re backing that ambition with stronger governance, sharper risk frameworks, clearer accountability and smarter use of technology and outsourcing.

Rising momentum in private markets

Private markets are entering a new phase of growth. With revenues predicted to reach US $432.2 billion by 2030 (over half the total for the entire asset management industry), fundraising across private markets asset classes is gaining momentum.[1] But growth remains uneven, leading to continuing trends and some notable shifts in capital allocations across the private markets.

Building on what we saw in last year’s Change report, private equity continues to attract the largest share of new fundraising, reflecting anticipated increases in deal activity.

Real estate has staged a strong comeback, rising from ninth in 2025 to third in expected inflows, aided by falling financing costs, office-return trends, and ESG-driven demand. Nearly all the institutional investors we surveyed expect to increase their allocations to real estate in the near future.

At the same time, private debt maintains its growth curve, thanks to stable cash flow profiles and strong investor demand for yield-driven exposure.

Globalisation and widening participation

Fund managers are moving into new jurisdictions, targeting broader investor bases and launching more funds than ever before. Two-thirds expect higher fund launches in 2026 compared to 2025 – with a further 24% predicting dramatic rises. Expansion is increasingly international, with 98% of managers planning to raise capital in new overseas markets – the highest proportion recorded since our Change reports began.

Change 2026 also reveals that semi-liquid structures are quietly gathering pace, supported by the UK’s LTAF and EU’s ELTIF 2.0 reforms to enable retail participation in private markets. But less than half of the managers we surveyed feel equipped to bring these products to market, highlighting a widening gap between ambition and operational capability.

ETFs also continue to grow steadily. Some 89% of managers expect higher inflows into Active ETFs – matched in our data by 87% of investors who plan to increase their allocations. Passive ETFs are on a similar trajectory: 74% of managers and 50% of investors anticipate growth. It’s clear that, in the search for growth, demand for accessible, lower cost products is driving uptake.

Ambition from the top

Strikingly, in our survey CEOs are particularly bullish about growth. Nearly a third of them predict dramatically higher inflows this year – that’s more than double the proportion among the rest of the C-suite.

That ambition is evident in the strategies they’re backing: 97% plan to launch funds outside their firm’s core competencies, signalling renewed willingness to push into new asset classes and markets.

Defined, structured growth

Against a turbulent backdrop, fund managers and institutional investors are aligned on their predictions for growth on the horizon. But this year’s defining shift is that confidence is paired with measured execution. The industry is proactively shaping growth by pursuing new products, geographies and asset-class diversification – underpinned by disciplined execution, operational resilience and a renewed focus on governance. The result is growth that matches investor expectations despite ongoing volatility.

The next 12 months – and beyond – will surely reward those who can combine such ambition with execution. Firms that innovate while keeping oversight front of mind will claim this new era of expansion and opportunity.

Hear more from fund managers and investors on their strategies for growth amid uncertainty. Download Change 2026 now.